Tim Oren's Due Diligence

The Roving Eye: Keynes v. Hayek Crib, Genomics Learning Curve, Ghosts Of The Last Bubble

DKos Win! Not the place I'd normally go for economic enlightenment, but there's a very nicely done mini-tutorial on macro in the guise of a concordance to the Keynes - Hayek throw down video that I've featured before. Via the Instaprof.

All Your Base Are Belong... A report on new gene sequencing product releases at a recent conference provides plenty of evidence that the Carlson curves are still running. Plenty of novel designs based on new science, given some clear evidence that that there are multiple possible paths ahead, some with interesting implications on the speed and reliability of sequencing, as well as diversification of the sequencing market into niches. Still lots of technological uncertainty here; plenty of potential for today's leaders to miss the next generation. If you've got a win, cash it in!

Green gone to rust. What happens when the subsidies run out? Some remnants of the last time around the statist track. Ah, but this time, it'll be different! Sure it will! (PDF)

Obligatory eye candy. Night-time volcanic eruption at the Pink Tentacle blog.

It's The Uncertainty, Stupid

An NRO reader reports a Q&A with a Fed economist:

Did he believe that the healthcare reform and related tax proposals, the proposed cap and trade legislation and the consequent increase in energy costs, the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the agitation for higher taxes on the wealthy, the proposal to increase corporate tax rates, the proposal to increase capital gains taxes, the trial floating of ideas such as a national VAT and removal of the earnings cap on FICA, the more robust regulatory bureaucracy . . . did he believe any of these uncertainties were depressing hiring?

He stated yes, without a doubt and proceeded to relay a conversation he had with a local chemical company regarding their 2010 capital expenditure budget. When asked what the company intended to invest in 2010, the response was ‘nothing,’ not due to a paucity of good opportunities, but because it was impossible for the company to calculate a rate of return given all the uncertainty over cost of labor, energy prices, regulatory mandates and the like....

“No investment means no hiring and no new tax revenues. It’s the uncertainty, stupid.”

And I'll note that 'nothing' for a capex budget really means you are milking the business. Depreciation isn't just an entry on the balance sheet and tax return, particularly not for a chemical manufacturer.

Anatomy Of An Assassination

On January 19th, 2010, a man named Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh died in a hotel in Dubai. Since his day job was a senior leader of the terrorist organization Hamas, with particular expertise in smuggling Iranian arms into the Gaza strip, his demise was mourned only by a select few.

Things became became more interesting when the autopsy apparently showed that what looked like a natural causes death was in fact a murder, possibly a Tazering followed by suffocation. Dubai's public places are well salted with surveillance cameras that are several grades better than those at the corner 7-11, and the local authorities went to work hunting in their captured footage for those who had done the dirty deed.

Leading to this fascinating 27 minute video. Silent, with title cards and subtitles explaining the images you're looking at - as the surveillance teams arrive in country, check into hotels, wait for the target to arrive and go to ground, stake out the premises and rent a room across the hall, rendezvous with a hit team, and set up a perimeter while the killing is done, then clear the area. You see everything but the deed itself. A bizarre, 21st century Day of the Jackal as silent film in miniature.

What you won't find out is whodunnit. (Note that the passports from which the names and faces shown at the end of the video were taken, turned out to be fakes - based on real people, but with bogus passport numbers or other information.) Suspicion has naturally focused on the Israeli Mossad, since they'd have plenty of reason to wish this guy dead. Israel is following their usual 'refuse to confirm or deny' which usually means 'yes', but now the Dubai police have arrested two Palestinians who once worked for Palestinian Authority security (Hamas and the PA are not exactly best buds), so who knows?

Update: A mystery writer speculates.

Could California Borrow This Guy?

Newly installed New Jersey governor Christie lays it down: The state is busted, public pensions and retiree benefits are the biggest single cause, and it's time for the hurt. The same is true in pretty much every state out there, but he's the one with the nuts to say it in plain English, and tell the awful truth about what the pols over-promised on the taxpayers' behalf. Much as I'd like to bring him out here to show the Governator - who's been showing the side effects of his earlier occupation - how to do it, Christie's going to be busy fighting off the smears and counter-attacks already pouring from public employees unions, teachers and other swillers at the public trough.

For those looking at governor candidates in California, and other soon-to-be-busted states, here's a test for the primaries and November: Look at and listen to each of them, and then see if you can envision that speech coming out of their mouth. If you can't, forget it. It's no time for wusses.

Brains and Beta

Researchers at Caltech has linked the fear of losing money to a specific structure in the brain, the amygdala. Subjects in which it was damaged were willing to essentially disregard downside risks. The amygdala is linked to emotional responses of all kind of events, including threats, and it makes sense that something that might have evolved to mediate life and death fight/flight decisions is invoked in making the fear/greed tradeoff in investing.

It would be interesting to also know the neurological involvement in gain seeking. But while Caltech gets started on that, perhaps someone should do profiles on amygdala function in - let's say - VCs, day traders, hedgies, and Fannie Mae executives.

(Via Tyler Cowen.)

Fascinating Analysis of Public Social Networks

Pete Warden has scraped profile information from millions of Facebook pages, creating a (US-centric) web of personal connections. Some rough clustering yields:


RTWT for further description of the analysis and clusters. I initially read his name for the southern West Coast cluster as 'Socialistan'. Heh. Hat tip to Razib Khan.

Political Counterproductivity

Krugman: "...a vote for a Republican, no matter what you think of him as a person, is a vote for paralysis."

Coyote: "OK, sign me up."

Me too.

The Roving Eye: Cool Technology Edition

Just in case you missed these:

25nm achieved. The Intel/Micro Flash memory JV announced the launch of a 25 nanometer fab, which will double storage densities. SSDs getting ever larger and, since many such are connected via USB 2.0, making that spec look ever more aged.

'Big Dog' robot procurement. DARPA lets a $25m contract to Boston Dynamics to create a deployable version of its Big Dog prototype walking robot. Lots of speculation on futures, some a bit out there, at the first link.

Spray-on glass? It's claimed that Germany's Nanopool has developed a spray-on glass coating material that creates a film a few dozen molecules thick, radically altering surface properties, including on living materials. Pretty cool if it pans out. Let's hope they've got a safe way to apply it.

The right turn in space. I spend enough time trashing Obama's economic incompetence that it's only fair to throw a bone when he does something right. Such is the decision to get NASA out of the rocketship building business. NASA was great back in the day, when it was new and had a clear charter, but like all bureaucracies it's turned into a haven for pork barrel projects and long term employment for functionaries. If we want space flight to be sustainable, not a taxpayer funded stunt, it's time to turn over the construction projects to private concerns that worry about things like cost learning curves, and minimizing the manpower and capital used for building and operations.

Retirement and Relocation Data Sources

Now for something a bit off the beaten path for this blog. A couple of years ago, during my enforced period of inactivity, I began a personal due diligence project that I mentioned in passing: Building a database of information on potential retirement spots. With California continuing its descent into a nanny state tax hell for both business and individuals, that information may get used sooner than later, so I've taken advantage of the current recuperation (which is going well) to revisit and update that database. I'm sure I'm not the only one engaged in such a thought process, so for those who are starting or in the middle of the job and find they way here through Google, here is an annotated list of some of the more generally applicable data sources that I've used, roughly sorted by category. General caveat: I am a spreadsheet-wielding, database wonk, computer scientist and systems analyst trained, libertarian venture capitalist and manager. The types of data and their application are biased accordingly. Season to taste.

"Obama’s offer of small business financing is meaningless."

Here's why.

And here's why that's why: