Tim Oren's Due Diligence

Review: Joel Kotkin's "The Next Hundred Million"

(This blog has been suffering its usual fate during California's spring. Neglect, that is. I've been out putting some miles on my hiking boots, thereby completing my rehab from getting the metal out of my leg. I'll try to unload a few things from the blogging queue before heading East to Virginia for vacation in a couple of weeks.)

I first noticed Joel Kotkin through bumping into links to his regular Forbes column. That led me on to the New Geography blog, where he's a frequent poster. A feed well worth following for those, like myself, looking for data and analytic points of view on location options.

For any who follow Kotkin at all, the main theses in this book - subtitled "America in 2050" will come as no surprise:

• Unlike other developed nations, America is still growing its population, and this is a good thing if we take advantage of it.


• The suburbs and exurbs are alive and well, will continue to prosper from the growing population, and are shifting from strictly bedroom communities to multi-faceted hubs in their own right.


• There is little sign of an aging population moving back to the urban cores.


• Locales that welcome development are growing and prospering, while those with regulatory land rationing stagnate.


• The American Heartland may be poised for a resurgence, due to overall population growth coupled with regulatory ossification of the coastal states.


• Race is diminishing as a factor in American life, while class and social mobility remain important.


• The biggest challenge facing America is finding work for the growing population which permits class mobility, while retaining the benefits of healthy seniors who wish to continue to work. The biggest threats to that future are centralized planning and overcommitment to foreign adventures.

If you're a believer in American exceptionalism, this is all good red meat. If you're an adherent of the 'New Urbanist" school, you'll hate it. What makes this book worth having, even if you've already ingested Kotkin's ideas elsewhere, is his exhaustive footnoting of analysis and forecasts, including both primary demographic and other data, and more accessible secondary sources. That's a luxury tough to fit into the blog post or opinion column formats, and if you're doing your own analysis, you'll almost certainly find something new in Kotkin's massive bibliography.

This also serves to highlight another valuable distinction of Kotkin: His work is largely descriptive and evidence based, grounded in both demographic fate and observable aggregate behaviors of people, rather than polls and theories. When he uses 'is' or 'will be', he's earned that formulation by observation. Contrast the futurist schools whose works are studded with 'should' and 'must', and are willing to lend their credibility to those who would use coercion to make it come out their way. (I consider it highly ironic that while 'progressives' of a century ago agitated to get the working classes out of tenements, those with the same label today seem determined to put them back there.)

Kotkin builds his theses of (sub)urbanism, ethnic blending, class, and Heartland resurgence brick by brick. In the his final chapter, titled the same as the book, he both sums up and inevitably ventures into politically-freighted territory. While he's no friend to GWB-style interventionism, and repeatedly cites the election of Obama as a positive in the decline of race consciousness, his conclusions on demographic outcomes, and what can be done to benefit from continuing American growth, are all at odds with the instincts and policies of the current administration, and the nanny-state Democrat majorities in DC and Sacramento.

The Roving Eye: Keynes v. Hayek Crib, Genomics Learning Curve, Ghosts Of The Last Bubble

DKos Win! Not the place I'd normally go for economic enlightenment, but there's a very nicely done mini-tutorial on macro in the guise of a concordance to the Keynes - Hayek throw down video that I've featured before. Via the Instaprof.

All Your Base Are Belong... A report on new gene sequencing product releases at a recent conference provides plenty of evidence that the Carlson curves are still running. Plenty of novel designs based on new science, given some clear evidence that that there are multiple possible paths ahead, some with interesting implications on the speed and reliability of sequencing, as well as diversification of the sequencing market into niches. Still lots of technological uncertainty here; plenty of potential for today's leaders to miss the next generation. If you've got a win, cash it in!

Green gone to rust. What happens when the subsidies run out? Some remnants of the last time around the statist track. Ah, but this time, it'll be different! Sure it will! (PDF)

Obligatory eye candy. Night-time volcanic eruption at the Pink Tentacle blog.

The Ambassadors of Cute

The Japanese Foreign Ministry has come up with a new wrinkle - three roving ambassadors for Japan's "kawaii" culture. Misako Aoki appears to hold the 'Lolita' portfolio; it's not clear what trends the others represent.


(Via Japan Newbie blog, which has a lot more. Official Foreign Ministry page, in Japanese here.)

While this may seem like more biggov silliness, it makes a sort of sense. Japanese cultural exports have become a big business, even as its leadership in electronics slips southward to Korea and China. The reach in the US is slowly breaking out of the typically adolescent otaku set; last week I spotted a copy of Shonen Jump in my orthopedist's waiting room.

Given Japan's affection for things robotic, I'm now eagerly awaiting the arrival of a giant autonomous mecha ambassador.

The Roving Eye: Carlson Curves Updated, Troubled Metro WiFi, Tasty Media Bits

The Pace of Genomics Learning. Rob Carlson revisits and updates his charts on gene sequencing learning curves. Carlson is commendably modest about this effort: "I have cautioned both the private sector and governments from attempting to use this data to forecast trends." However, that's overlooking a collateral benefit of well-defined learning curves such as Moore's Law: They serve as a synchronizing vision among current and potential creators and users of a technology. Users start working on applications in advance of economic feasibility, with a fair amount of comfort that time will fix that problem. Innovators and infrastructure creators on the sell side proceed with greater confidence that new demand will appear to reward their efforts in reducing costs. Carlson uses a 'Thousand Dollar Genome' as a way to think about the possible consequences and limits of demand. While that's undoubtedly useful, it has some risk of falling into the 'Who needs an IBM machine in their home?' trap from the computing world. Make the technology cheap enough, and all sorts of uses pop up that defy the original idea of how it should be packaged. (Note Carlson also has some interesting but less well established curves for gene synthesis. Well worth watching for futurists and would-be biotech investors.

WiFi not so fine. A lot of the Bay Area's attempts to turn 802.11 into a metro access solution are shutting down. WiFi's ubiquity and consequent low costs got a lot of people, from engineers to investors to city councils, excited about the possibility of bending it to a use for which it was never designed. While I've seen some ingenuous attempts at things like meshing and remote management, the crux of the matter seems to be operations, which is often overlooked by those who've never run a network. Earthlink, at any rate, has been finding out the hard way that running an outdoor WiFi access network is a bit tougher than remotely managing racks of modems in Telco central offices. (Via Jeff Nolan.)

California ablaze. It's a tragedy for those caught up in the wildfires, but it can also make for some stunning photography.

You say you'd prefer a somewhat damper location? In the Navy.... Those waves are breaking over the equivalent of a six story building.

The Science of Scotch. The New York Academy of Sciences hosts a podcast with the brew master of Laphroig, one of my favorite tipples. Turns out the flavor is due in part to ancient seaweed. Here's some music to go with your wee drop.

The Roving Eye: Energy, Blackmail and Memorial Day

Freeman Dyson gives a take on global warming and energy policy, in the form of a book review of William Nordhaus' "A Question of Balance". Written in Dyson's usual clear and concise style, it spells out conclusions for the layman and policy maker. Being an old modeling wonk, I'd like to know more about Nordhaus' DICE simulation that underlies the comparisons, but the lessons are pretty clear: The only clear policy winner out there, other than getting lucky with technology fixes for cheap energy, is a carbon tax. Direct government regulation is an economic catastrophe, and the more arbitrary and heavy-handed the worse. Al Gore's prescription comes out as a tens of trillions disaster, no surprise from someone who doesn't seem to have grip on either economics or engineering. If we're to get lucky with technology fixes, the best way to improve our chances is a carbon tax that creates a reliable incentive for inventors and investors. The current ethanol subsidy/tariff fiasco stands as an example of the outcome when winners are picked by political fiat.

Meanwhile, what's happening with the price we currently paying for energy? We're handing a cool trillion dollars a year to OPEC, according to an article by Bob Zubrin, whose work I've reviewed here. Not only is that crippling to our economy, but a good fraction of the money goes to prop up regimes pursuing policies inimical to our welfare, such as promoting socialism and Islamism. So while we're talking about a carbon tax, we should be discussing an additional levy on imported petroleum and gas. Meanwhile, go full bore after tar sands, oil shale, and - yes - drill offshore and in ANWR. If the right can get around the need for carbon taxes, it's time for the left to quit whinging about doing what we need to survive a transitional period. Reduce impact, but drill and dig. Those who oppose are effectively voting for more tombstones in our military cemeteries. There's only so long that the citizenry are going to put up with blackmail by those who happen to live on top a pool of oil, but add little value and often seek our harm, a fact likely obscured by the political battles of the moment. We can fix the problem by sweat and innovation, starting now, or by force later.

As we start the summer holiday season, and remember those who sacrificed for our freedom, it's also good to recall how good Americans have it. We live in a style beyond the dreams of our ancestors, and are not - yet - in a mortal struggle for survival. We're in a season when politicians of every stripe are incented to convince us we have bad problems that only they can solve. That's a siren song well worth ignoring. When political interests give us an ethanol fiasco, or prove unable to face simple actuarial realities, it's fair to ask what confidence we should have that government can fix the energy (or any other) mess with regulation and prescription. The best Memorial Day gift the government and politicians could give the American people is to get out of the way.

Bleg: Questions for DARPA Urban Challenge Teams?

I have a long standing interest in semi-autonomous systems ('robots' if you would, but I draw the boundary more widely), from both the technical and investment points of view. As a result, I'll be attending the finals of the DARPA Urban Challenge in southern California at the end of the month. This is the successor to the Grand Challenge of 2005, which saw five autonomous vehicles complete a 132 mile course through desert and mountains, and was one of DARPA's most effective programs ever. This time, the course includes city streets and other vehicles, and requires obeying safety and traffic rules. The ultimate goal is to produce robotic logistics vehicles that can reduce the number of personnel required to handle supplies and support, and to be exposed to IEDs and other hazards.

Thanks to the generosity of Joe Katzman, I'll be attending the event credentialed as a stringer for Defense Industry Daily. I may be posting stories there, at Winds of Change, and here.

So here's the bleg: I've got my own ideas for interesting story angles, points of information and questions to ask the participants. I've also got a very eclectic readership here, with some very deep technologists and investors. What would you like to know? What would you ask? I can't guarantee to follow up on every idea, but anything that strikes a chord or is part of a cluster of interests will be used. Comments are open, and my e-mail is in the 'about'.

Electric Skyline

So I was driving back from a hike up along Skyline above Portola Valley, and stopped off at the parking lot across from Alice's in Sky Londa to change from boots to something more comfortable. And there was the glittering object of both techie and green lust, one of the prototype Tesla electric roadsters, apparently about to go for a test drive along the twisty roads west of Skyline.
It wasn't clear if it was a real test or a reviewer's excursion, but I wasn't the only one pulling out a camera.

The trailer in back of the car carried the Tesla Motors logo - not clear if it had brought the roadster up the hill, was a mobile shop 'just in case', or carried a big ass battery charger 'just in case'. Let's hope a few more years on the battery learning curve makes this experience a more common one.

More on Japan Demographics

Further to my previous post mentioned the demographic imperative for development of robotics in Japan, here's a survey article from the Economist on the general topic of Japanese demographics. The population pyramid charts are quite remarkable, bearing in mind that while continuation of the current birth rate trends aren't guaranteed, that's the best bet. Even the 40+ year-out chart is better than half a done deal already.

The article digs beyond the obvious eldercare and pensions implications to issues such as how to downsize cities and towns, and the political impact of pensions becoming the #1 issue. That last point at least sounds familiar. And while I don't know enough about Japanese politics to know whether pensions were a driving issue, the ruling LDP did take a hammering in Upper House elections this past week.

Could Your Next Temp Be A Bot?

If you're in Japan, maybe. From the curiously named Pink Tentacle blog comes a report of a temporary labor agency buying a small batch of Mitsubishi's Wakamaru semi-humanoid robots. They will apparently be tasked to escort visitors to offices to their destinations, and can play music and carry on some sort of conversation using a 10,000 word vocabulary while wheeling along beside the guest. R. Daneel it's not, but it may chip a few tasks off the usual Office Lady functions in a Japanese office.

The chances of these fine yellow fellows turning up in the U.S. at this point are minimal. Japan is dealing with an increasing labor shortage issue due to a less than replacement birth rate. Here, the native reproduction rate is near equilibrium and the population is still growing due to immigration, legal and illegal. We also seem to be more willing to change business social conventions over time. Being escorted by an OL is still de riguer in Japan. In the Valley an admin only comes down to greet you if you are visited someone rather senior; juniors can fetch their guests themselves.

The packaging might have trouble here as well. Kawaii plays well in Japan, and crosses cultures with anime and other entertainment products, but I'd hazard the style would not be well received in American business. However, both cuteness and anthropomorphism are continuing themes in Japanese robotics, from the original Aibo to Asimo to other bots for routine office tasks. Consciously or not, the Japanese are spending a lot of effort at making bots 'socially acceptable' in every day life. This is a demographic necessity. Unable to cover the need with immigrants, Japan will face a huge eldercare problem in a very few years. If it's to avoid cannibalizing the dwindling pool of workers to care for the elderly, then it must make delivery of a portion of care by bots acceptable to those who had no exposure to them in their previous life.

Japan faces an irreversible forcing function that requires progress in bots that can interact and dwelll alongside humans. The particular packaging that results may or may not work well elsewhere in the world, but the functionality that is developed will certainly be exportable.

Via Global Voices

The Dinochrome Platoon

Via the Blogfather, a well-written piece in the WaPo tells the story of our battlebots and the troops who work with them. It sounds rather familiar to anyone who grew up on Keith Laumer's SF stories of the Bolos, gigantic autonomous battle tanks of the future. Laumer wrote in the 60s, when the images of WWII armor battles still lingered, when counterinsurgency and asymmetric warfare were still minor military specialties, and before the miniaturizing effects of Moore's Law had really kicked in. A real 21st century PackBot would be dust under the ten foot wide treads of a Bolo Mark XXVIII.

What's in common between fiction and fact is the tendency of the warriors to give names, ranks and even decorations to the bots, and go well beyond the call of duty in attempting to preserve and repair them. Perhaps unsurprising given the tendency of teamwork under stress to create strong relationships- and a phenomenon fairly well know in the literature. Back in the day... (flashback dissolve) I and a team of folks at Apple showed that you could get people to attribute human emotions to a 32x32 pixel black and white icon fronting for a simple database algorithm (skip to 'Guides' heading here). Then a couple of Stanford profs systematically showed just how simple it is to get someone to project human motivations and social roles onto computing or communications devices, with very modest amounts of cueing. This is so easy that it's likely an evolved pattern - when something shows even a small amount of the behaviors that we associate with humanity, it gets attributed with the whole boatload, because that's been the safe bet over time.